Hormuz Reopening Monitor

Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen by end of April? Tracking shipping, ceasefire, Iran statements, and US/Israel actions.

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Current Status

PARTIALLY BLOCKED — 93% DISRUPTED

Reopen by April 30?

35-50%

model estimate

Ceasefire active April 7-21 but already fragile. Tanker transit at 7% of normal. Iran demands tolls; Trump rejects. Israel continues Lebanon strikes (not covered by ceasefire) — most likely collapse trigger.

📋 Key Facts

Daily Oil Flow

~20M bpd

20% of global supply

Width (Narrowest)

~33 km

3km shipping lanes each direction

Key Exporters Affected

Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran

All transit Hormuz

Current Transit

10/wk

vs normal 135/wk (93% disruption)

Iran Toll Demand

$1/bbl crypto

Trump rejects 'tolls'

Ceasefire Window

Apr 7-21

2 weeks, fragile

❓ Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen by April 30?

35-50% probability of full reopening by April 30

▲ YES — Will Reopen

+Ceasefire holds through April 21 with extension

+Iran agrees to abandon toll demand under US pressure

+Lebanon situation cools, removing ceasefire collapse risk

+OPEC+ pressure on Iran to maintain transit

▼ NO — Stays Blocked

−Ceasefire excludes Lebanon — Israel keeps striking, Iran retaliates

−Iran insists on $1/bbl tolls — Trump escalates if rejected

−IRGC has openly stated they can re-close 'within hours'

−Only 10 tankers transited last week vs normal 135

−Houthi proxy attacks continue (not covered by ceasefire)

⚡ Triggers to Watch

Event	Impact	Probability
Ceasefire extended past April 21	Bearish oil — full reopening more likely. WTI -$5 to -$10	40%
Iran abandons toll demand	Bearish oil — friction removed. WTI -$3 to -$5	30%
Lebanon strikes pause	Reduces collapse risk. WTI -$5	25%
First 50+ tanker week	Confirms reopening. WTI -$3 to -$8 over the week	30%
Hormuz fully closed by Iran	Catastrophic — WTI +$30 to +$50	5-8%
Naval clash in Gulf	Major escalation. WTI +$15 to +$25	15%
Israel widens Lebanon offensive	Iran retaliates, ceasefire collapses. WTI +$15 to +$25	30%
Trump truth social: deal extended	Bearish oil — instant repricing. WTI -$5 to -$10	30%

🧠AI Hormuz Analysis