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Iran & Strait of Hormuz Monitor
Real-time intelligence on the single largest geopolitical risk factor for oil prices.
Current Threat Level
CRITICAL — CEASEFIRE FRAGMENTING
Ceasefire signed but already cracking. Hormuz re-blocked after Israel hit Lebanon. Iran demanding crypto tolls. Only 10 tankers transited in past week (vs normal 135). Collapse risk HIGH.
Risk Premium Est.
$5-8/bbl
partially deflated, could re-expand
Strait of Hormuz — Key Facts
Daily Flow
~20 million bpd
~20% of global oil supply
Width (Narrowest)
~33 km
Shipping lanes are 3km wide each direction
Key Exporters
Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran
All use this chokepoint
US Military Presence
2 carrier strike groups
5th Fleet based in Bahrain
Iran Naval Capability
Fast attack craft, mines, missiles
Asymmetric warfare doctrine
Historical Closures
Tanker War 1984-88
Partial disruption, not full closure
Escalation Scenarios
Full Closure
Iran physically blocks strait. Extremely unlikely but catastrophic.
Probability
5-8%
Price Impact
+$30-50/bbl
Partial Disruption
Mine deployment, harassment of tankers, temporary closures. Most likely escalation path.
Probability
15-25%
Price Impact
+$10-20/bbl
Insurance / Shipping Freeze
War risk insurance spikes make transit uneconomical. De facto soft closure.
Probability
20-30%
Price Impact
+$5-15/bbl
Rhetoric Only
Current state. Threats maintain risk premium without physical disruption.
Probability
40-50%
Price Impact
+$2-5/bbl risk premium
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