No active alerts — markets are quiet
Ceasefire Monitor
Tracking the US-Iran 2-week ceasefire. Alerts fire on missiles, airstrikes, violations, or collapse indicators.
Ceasefire Status
ACTIVE
4/7/2026 — 4/21/2026 (14 days)
Collapse Risk
100%
IMMINENT COLLAPSE
Day 13 of 141.0 days remaining
Multiple violations or military actions detected. Ceasefire is likely to collapse within hours.
Military Incidents
3
Violations
1
WTI Impact if Collapse
+$15-25
$120 Prob if Collapse
~55-70%
Collapse Indicators — Auto-Alert Triggers
CRITICAL
Missile launch detected (any party)
Immediate oil spike $5-10
CRITICAL
Airstrike on Iranian or US assets
Ceasefire dead, WTI +$15-25
CRITICAL
Hormuz naval confrontation
Shipping halt, WTI +$20-30
HIGH
Houthi attacks escalate (proxy violation)
Ceasefire stress, WTI +$3-5
HIGH
IRGC redeploys to Hormuz
Ceasefire failing, WTI +$5-10
HIGH
Diplomatic talks suspended
Collapse likely, WTI +$8-15
MEDIUM
Inflammatory rhetoric from either side
Uncertainty, WTI +$1-3
CRITICAL
UN/IAEA monitors expelled
Ceasefire over, WTI +$10-20
Event Timeline (7 events)
⚠criticalviolationBloomberg / Fars07:18 PM
Hormuz tanker transits BLOCKED AGAIN after Israel strikes Lebanon
Oil tanker passage halted hours after first ships allowed through. Iran says Lebanon attacks violate the spirit of the ceasefire. Only 3 ships left the region today vs normal 20/day. Fars news agency confirms transit suspended.
Ceasefire: collapse riskOil: ▲ Price up
💥criticalairstrikeNBC News / CNN06:38 PM
Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon — NOT covered by ceasefire
Netanyahu confirmed Israel will continue operations against Hezbollah regardless of the US-Iran ceasefire. The White House confirmed Lebanon is excluded from the agreement. Iran views this as a provocation.
Ceasefire: collapse riskOil: ▲ Price up
🤝highdiplomacyCoinDesk / CNBC04:38 PM
Iran demands $1/barrel crypto toll for Hormuz passage — Trump rejects 'tolls'
Iran plans to collect cryptocurrency payments from tankers transiting Hormuz. White House press secretary says passage must be 'without limitation, including tolls.' This is a potential dealbreaker.
Ceasefire: stressOil: ▲ Price up
✅mediumcomplianceGulf News / Ship tracking02:38 PM
First tankers pass through Hormuz under ceasefire — brief window of hope
A small number of oil tankers were allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the crisis escalated. However, this window closed within hours after the Lebanon strikes.
Ceasefire: positiveOil: ▼ Price down
🤝highdiplomacyAP / White House11:38 AM
US-Iran ceasefire formally begins — 2 weeks, conditional on Hormuz opening
Both sides agreed to a 14-day halt to hostilities. Pakistan brokered the deal after 40 days of US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Iran agreed to 'complete, immediate and safe opening' of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump received 10-point Iranian proposal he called 'workable.'
Ceasefire: positiveOil: ▼ Price down
🗣highrhetoricIRNA / Reuters09:38 AM
IRGC commander: 'If Americans break promises, we close Hormuz within hours'
Senior IRGC commander on state TV warned the ceasefire is tactical and Iran retains the capability and willingness to re-close the Strait immediately if terms are violated.
Ceasefire: stressOil: ▲ Price up
✈mediumdroneUK Maritime Trade Operations07:38 AM
Houthi drone intercepted near Red Sea commercial vessel — proxy forces not covered
A Houthi drone was shot down near a commercial vessel. The ceasefire explicitly does not cover proxy forces in Yemen or Lebanon, creating multiple triggers for escalation.
Ceasefire: stressOil: ▲ Price up
If Ceasefire Collapses
WTI is currently ~$95. If the ceasefire collapses:
Partial Re-escalation
$105-115
$120 prob: ~35-50%
Full Re-escalation
$115-130
$120 prob: ~65-80%
Hormuz Blockade
$130-160+
$120 prob: ~95%