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Event & Catalyst Monitor
Inventoryhigh
API Weekly Crude Inventory Report
1d 0h
Tue, Apr 21, 8:30 PM
Inventorycritical
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
1d 18h
Wed, Apr 22, 2:30 PM
Rollhigh
CLK6 (May 2026) Contract Expiry
1d 22h
Wed, Apr 22, 6:00 PM
Upcoming Catalysts
API Weekly Crude Inventory Report
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 8:30 PM UTC
high1d 0h
American Petroleum Institute weekly inventory estimate. Released Tuesday after market close, serves as preview for Wednesday's official EIA data.
Why It Matters
API number sets expectations for the EIA report. A large surprise can move overnight futures.
Model Sensitivity
Medium — serves as an early read on the more important EIA data.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Wednesday, April 22, 2026 at 2:30 PM UTC
critical1d 18h
Official weekly U.S. petroleum supply data including crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories, refinery utilization, imports, and exports.
Why It Matters
The single most important weekly data release for oil. Inventory surprise and refinery utilization matter most for $120 touch probability.
Model Sensitivity
High — inventory surprise is the most influential fundamental input this week.
CLK6 (May 2026) Contract Expiry
Wednesday, April 22, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC
high1d 22h
May 2026 WTI CL futures contract expires. Front month rolls to CLM6 (June 2026).
Why It Matters
Contract roll can create volatility as positions are transferred. The Polymarket resolution tracks the 'active month' — after roll, June becomes the reference contract.
Model Sensitivity
Medium — roll mechanics can affect which contract the $120 resolution references.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
Friday, April 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC
medium3d 21h
Weekly count of active US oil drilling rigs. Indicator of future production trajectory.
Why It Matters
Falling rig counts signal future supply tightening; rising counts suggest more supply coming. Current count: ~488.
Model Sensitivity
Low — lagging indicator, but sustained trends affect supply forecasts.
Fed Interest Rate Decision + Press Conference
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC
medium8d 22h
Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision followed by Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Why It Matters
Rate decisions affect USD strength and risk appetite. Hawkish = strong USD = bearish oil. Dovish = weak USD = bullish oil.
Model Sensitivity
Low-Medium — affects macro layer and USD strength signal.
WTI April 2026 Polymarket Resolution
Friday, May 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
critical10d 4h
All WTI April 2026 Polymarket price target markets resolve based on whether any 1-minute candle touched the target during April.
Why It Matters
Final resolution. All positions settle. Markets tracked: $120, $130, $140, $150, $160.
Model Sensitivity
N/A — this is the resolution event itself.
Past Events
IEA Oil Market Report (April 2026)
4/14/2026
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
4/15/2026